General Partner, Global Macro Advisors
Contributor's Links: Credit Writedowns

Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

Yellen: The Relationship Between The Slope Of The Yield Curve And The Business Cycle May Have Changed
Markets are pricing in less than two rate hikes for 2018 in the aftermath of yesterday’s FOMC rate decision and press conference.
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Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis And The Fed’s Reaction Function
The Fed is likely to be more hawkish in 2018 than expected, unless the economy decelerates appreciably. What this means is that the yield curve will flatten toward the middle of the year.
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As The Fed Meets, Expect Expansion Through 2018, But Problems Thereafter
The last big shock the US economy took was the drop in oil prices from over $100 in mid-2014 to $30 a barrel at the beginning of 2016.
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We Are In The Most Dangerous Period In The Business Cycle
If the economy is running solidly and leading economic indicators are bullish, the Fed is hard-pressed to not raise rates in an environment in which headline unemployment is low and falling.
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No, The Treasury Curve Isn’t Flattening Because The ECB And BOJ Are ‘Printing Money’
Every time you hear a ‘flow of funds’ argument to describe why fundamental factors in an asset market are changing, you should be extremely sceptical. Treasury rates change based on inflation and Fed policy — with a term premium tacked on.
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Places To Avoid For Commercial Real Estate Investment
House prices in Australia and Canada show you that a mild or no recession allows elevated prices to continue rising.
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STOCKS I FOLLOW

AAPL Apple Inc.
AIG American International Group Inc
AMBC AMBAC FINL GRP INC
BAC Bank of America Corporation
BBVA Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A.
BCS Barclays PLC
BGPIQ BORDERS GROUP INC
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF
BP BP p.l.c.
C Citigroup Inc.
CYB WisdomTree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan Fund
DIA SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average
EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index
ERO iPathSM EUR/USD Exchange Rate ETNs
EWC iShares MSCI Canada Index Fund
EWD iShares MSCI Sweden Index Fund
EWG iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund
EWH iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund
EWJ iShares MSCI Japan Index Fund
EWP iShares MSCI Spain Index Fund
EWS iShares MSCI Singapore Index Fund
EWU iShares MSCI United Kingdom Index Fund
EWY iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund
F Ford Motor Company
FDX FedEx Corporation
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp
FNMA Fannie Mae
FXE Euro Currency Trust
GE General Electric Company
GLD SPDR Gold Trust ETF
GM General Motors Company
GOOG Alphabet Inc. (Google)
GS Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
IEF iShares Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund
IRL The New Ireland Fund Inc.
ITB iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Index Fund
IYF iShares Dow Jones U.S. Financial Sector Index Fund
IYR iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index Fund
IYW iShares Dow Jones U.S. Technology Sector Index Fund
JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co.
KBE SPDR Series Trust
KME SPDR Series Trust
KRE SPDR KBW REGIONAL BNKNG
LYG Lloyds Banking Group plc
MAR Marriott International Inc.
MCO Moody's Corporation
MGA Magna International Inc.
MS Morgan Stanley
MUNI PIMCO Intermediate Muni Bond
OPELF OPEL TECHNOLOGIES
RBS The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc
REPYY REPSOL YPF S.A.
RIO Rio Tinto plc
RKH HOLDRS-Regional Bank
SPY SPDR S&P 500
TAO Guggenheim China Real Estate ETF
TGT Target Corporation
TM Toyota Motor Corporation
UBS UBS AG
UUP PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
VLO Valero Energy Corporation
WFC Wells Fargo & Co.
WMIH WMI Holdings Corp
WMT Wal-Mart Stores Inc.
XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR
XLI Industrials Select Sector SPDR
XLV Health Care Select Sector SPDR
XLY Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR
XRT SPDR S&P RETAIL ETF
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Work Experience

Global Market Strategist
Macro Advisors, Inc.
2008 - Present (10 years 1 month)

Widely-recognized senior macro strategist with deep micro experience in Financial Services, Telecom, and Technology. Confident in promoting business strategy, macroeconomic and investment theses to colleagues, clients and all forms of media via one-on-one meetings, group presentations, television, radio, newspaper, blogs.

Experienced at analyzing financial markets and macroeconomic data to identify drivers of investment performance like valuation and stage of business cycle.

Research Director
CEB
2006 - 2007 (2 years)

Presented research to more than 100 executive/board-level groups and wider audiences related to corporate strategy, operations, and general management. Consulted institutions to inform strategic objectives, facilitate action plans based on research.

Director, Corporate Development
Yahoo!
2000 - 2003 (4 years)
Associate Director, Leveraged Finance
Deutsche Bank
1997 - 2000 (4 years)

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