Danielle Park, CFA | TalkMarkets | Page 1
Portfolio Manager
Contributor's Links: Juggling Dynamite
Portfolio Manager, attorney, finance author, a regular guest on North American media. Danielle Park is the author of the best selling myth-busting book “Juggling Dynamite: An insider’s wisdom on money management, markets and wealth that lasts,” as well as a popular daily ...more

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China Ready To Write Down Real Estate Value;. Who’s Next?
Governments worldwide are looking for ways to “ease the real estate crisis” now sweeping much of the developed world.
Monetary Easing Tends To Be Contagious And No Quick Fix
This week, the Swedish central bank followed Switzerland in becoming the second G10 nation to ease base rates in the banking system.
Mind Those “Defensive” Equities
In the first quarter of 2024, Canadian business insolvencies climbed 87.2% higher than the same quarter last year.
Canada Feeling The Burn Of High Debt And Weakening Employment
With no quick economic boosts on the horizon, Canadian bond yields are retreating (bond prices rising) and are now back to where they were last November.
The Great Unwind Accelerates
A stream of big companies are guiding down their outlook this week with reference to distressed consumers pulling back.
Private Equity More Boondoggle Than Brilliance
The 2022-23 normalization of interest rates began to illuminate the darkness in private debt and equity products, and redemption requests started to be frozen.
Mortgage Pain Has Not Peaked Yet
Despite spring market optimism, US Home sales in March posted their most significant decline in more than a year (-4.3% month-over-month–the most significant monthly decline since November 2022).
Feds Increase Capital Gains Inclusion Rate
The new Federal Budget released yesterday has significant implications for capital assets held by individuals and corporations. See: Feds raise capital gains inclusion rate to 66.6% starting June 25.
Easy For Some, Harder For Most
Four months ago, Fed Fund Futures had priced in the expectation of 6 to 8 US rate cuts by the end of 2024. Today, that expectation has retreated to just 40 bps, with a 17% chance of a 25 bp cut in June.
Debt Stress Pandemic
US credit card debt topped $1.34 trillion in February, significantly above the cycle tops of around $900 billion in 2008 and 2020.
Canada And Australia: Two Economies With Similar Challenges
Canadian GDP per capita declined for the 6th consecutive quarter in the final quarter of 2023; this means there are less resources per person–the standard of living is in decline.
Impossible Home Prices Are The Problem
The median Canadian household income of $85k (Dec 2023) now qualifies for a maximum home price of $496k (assuming 20% down, 25-year amortization, and current mortgage rates (5-year fixed).
Spring Market Demanding More Realism
Nationally, the average Canadian home sale price in February 2024 was $719,400, -11.9% from the cycle peak of $816,720 in February 2022.
Bottom Not In
​​​​​​​US commercial real estate prices have declined an average of 33% since early 2020, with a 60% decline in the office sector.
Market Optimism Misplaced, Brace For Impact
A discussion about the disconnect between current market optimism and the underlying economic indicators suggesting a forthcoming hard landing.
Liquidity Crunch Spreads As Investors Try To Exit
Assets under management in the opaque-high-fee sector exploded globally as lenders loosened credit standards to make more loans.
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