The Heisenberg Report | TalkMarkets | Page 93
Contributor's Links: The Heisenberg Report
Perhaps more than any other time in the last six decades, the fate of markets is inextricably intertwined with the ebb and flow of geopolitics. From the ECB's attempts to use the central bank's balance sheet to influence political outcomes across the eurozone to Saudi Arabia's efforts ...more

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Record Treasury Short Trimmed For Fourth Straight Week, Trump Weighs On Dollar Longs
As you’re probably aware – and if you’re not, you should make yourself aware – watching CFTC positioning data is a good way to monitor the market’s evolving assessment of the reflation narrative.
Analyzing Yen-Sanity Ahead Of Friday’s Trump/Abe Pow-wow
Watch USDJPY. There is perhaps no better real-time referendum on markets.
Is Anyone Home Out There? Please Tell Me How This Ends Well
You know, when it comes to the corporate bond market and liquidity, there’s only so loud you can scream if no one wants to listen.
“The Dollar Trade Is Psychologically Broken,” One Trader Says
Through the end of December, the Trump trade persisted. Dollar up. Rates up. Stocks up. Although we might fairly say this trade “peaked” mid-month.
Yields Spike As 10Y Auction Tails
Well, that escalated quickly. 10Y yields just spiked following a nasty looking, tailing 10Y auction.
Subprime Auto Loans Might Be Ok Because After All, People Need Their Cars
Despite the relatively weak lending standards in the auto loans market, delinquency rates in the sector remain lower than those for credit cards and student loans.
A Little Monday Yen-Sanity Never Hurt Anyone
Yesterday, USD/JPY dipped to a fresh low of 111.65 as “stop-loss sell orders tripped under 112.00.” Watch that Trump/Abe meeting later this week because I can promise you everyone trading the yen will be tuned in.
Currency Markets In Turmoil: A Pocket Guide For The Week Ahead
As political risk continues to dominate the headlines (even as US equities steadfastly refuse to efficiently price it), FX markets will likely remain in the spotlight.
Goldman Tacitly Bullish On War
Goldman's political economist expects defense spending will rise starting in October 2017 when FY 2018 appropriations begin. Expect increased defense spending to drive accelerating sales and EPS growth for Northrup Grumman and L-3 Technologies.
The Massive Spec Treasury Short Is Still… Well… Pretty Massive
The latest data is out (as usual, up to date through Tuesday) and guess what? The Treasury short is still way on out there at 3 standard deviations despite a trimming of 5Y short positions.
The Mystery Of Friday’s "Somehow Disappointing" Jobs Number
Underemployment results were "disappointing" and number of people working part-time for economic reasons increased by 242k.
January Payrolls Beat, Unemployment Ticks Higher
Treasuries gained after a report showed U.S. average hourly earnings were lower than forecast in January, although the economy added more jobs than projected. The Labor Department said the U.S. added 227,000 jobs in January.
Yields, Dollar Jump On Giant ADP Beat
The dollar gained after ADP employment report was stronger than expected. The Bloomberg dollar index stayed within the day’s range, though USD scored fresh highs vs EUR and JPY.
Daily Kickstart (Fed, Dollar In Focus As Global PMIs, IPhones Boost Sentiment)
Quite a lot of people seem to be hanging their hats on today’s Fed statement. When it comes to the Fed, conditions appear to be right for a hawkish lean in the statement – this week’s equity woes notwithstanding.
One Bank Tells You How To Hedge Downside Equity Risk
The question now is whether this week’s central bank meetings and Friday’s NFP print will collectively argue the bull case or whether they will provide a policy/economic justification for further downside.
Daily Kickstart (Nervous Markets Weigh Trump Muslim Ban Ahead Of Big Week)
The dollar is lower and in keeping with post-election precedent, yields and futures followed the greenback down. Leveraged accounts pared USD longs against the euro and the yen.
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