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The Dow Likely Isn’t Going To 36,000: Part 1
Tuesday, February 14, 2017 4:13 PM EDT
It says “Certainly, a high yield may be a signal that a particular stock is attractively underpriced. But a low yield tells us very little about whether the market is dangerously overpriced.”
In this article: DJI
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Tarullo Resigns- Trump Fed Picks Coming
Tuesday, February 14, 2017 12:49 PM EDT
Just like how the Fed says it won’t raise rates because it doesn’t know what will happen to fiscal policy, the Fed also doesn’t know what Trump’s plans for the Fed are.
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Earnings Estimates Head Lower
Monday, February 13, 2017 8:44 PM EDT
Every Friday FactSet releases the updated aggregate information on earnings. I will review the new data. It was a poor update, but clearly the market doesn’t care as it rallied to new all-time highs.
In this article: AMZN, MSFT, SPX, VIX
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The Rally Goes On And Shorts Feel The Heat
Monday, February 13, 2017 5:38 PM EDT
Today the SPX has once again moved exactly to its expected move. Whether you're long or short this market in tonight's video let's look at what the expected move is and how to determine your risk...
In this video: SPX
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Snap Probably Isn’t The Next Facebook
Monday, February 13, 2017 2:03 PM EDT
Snapchat’s valuation is absurd. It needs to be avoided. In the best-case scenario, the stock should tread water as the company tries to come up with a business model ‘on the fly’.
In this article: META, SHAK, CMG
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What To Do In A Market That Does Nothing
Saturday, February 11, 2017 7:26 PM EDT
In this extended weekend edition video let's look at why the options market is so quiet and what you can do about it. Video length: 00:19:54.
In this video: SPX
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The Unlikely Rally Continues
Saturday, February 11, 2017 11:50 AM EDT
The unlikely event that stock prices would rise this year given their expensive valuations to start the year is occurring. If you annualize the returns of the S&P 500, the market is on pace to return in the high 20% range for 2017.
In this article: GLD, SLV, VIX
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Positive Arguments For Stocks
Friday, February 10, 2017 3:15 PM EDT
Do you agree with the implied default rate of 0.9% that the market is pricing for junk debt today?
In this article: SPX
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Is The Market Broken?
Friday, February 10, 2017 12:28 AM EDT
The stock market is reaching extreme levels in terms of the lack of volatility and high valuations. However, given the market’s ability to shake off bad news last year, it’s not surprising to see it rallying in the past few weeks.
In this article: SPX, VIX
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Border Adjusted Tax
Thursday, February 9, 2017 4:24 AM EDT
Fixing the American tax code is easier said than done. Proposing a repeal and replace to Obamacare is already expected to be pushed back until 2017. The tax cuts and reforms are going to be tough to pass.
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Market Sentiment Is Way Too Optimistic
Thursday, February 9, 2017 12:06 AM EDT
There’s an interesting dichotomy which is brewing in the market which is a recipe for lower stock prices. I will review this bearish signal in this article.
In this article: VIX
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Bonds On The Verge Of A Breakout, Look Out Financials!
Wednesday, February 8, 2017 6:00 PM EDT
Another new high in the Nasdaq 100 while the rest of the major indexes trail behind. The only financial instrument moving significantly this week has been Bonds.
In this video: SPX, XLF, VIX
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French And German Elections
Wednesday, February 8, 2017 4:33 PM EDT
If you are bullish on stocks overall and the euro, you will be pleased by how the elections look to be turning out.
In this article: EWQ, EWG
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Low Returns Almost Guaranteed In The Future
Wednesday, February 8, 2017 1:03 AM EDT
When stocks are overvalued, they have a very low likelihood of achieving above average returns. The turn in the labor market may be a key indicator which will tell us when the penchant for taking risk will end.
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Q1 Earnings Looking Bright Due To Energy
Tuesday, February 7, 2017 4:34 PM EDT
The market is pricing in a dovish Fed. Equity volatility is not reflecting the uncertain fiscal and monetary policy. If Trump’s economic policy is considered uncertain, surely his Fed appointments must also be uncertain.
In this article: VIX
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Is The Market More Expensive Than Ever Before?
Tuesday, February 7, 2017 1:13 AM EDT
It’s clear that the market is overvalued and that fund managers are extremely bullish on stocks and oil. They’re also bullish on the dollar which is strange because yesterday the strong dollar was the reason why oil fell.
In this article: OIL, USO, UUP, SPX
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